The Argus Leader reports that today is judgment day for state Sen. Dan Sutton.

Read: Panel to rule on Sutton’s fate today

Will it be exoneration, censure, or expulsion?

I wasn’t at the proceedings.  All I know is what I’ve read via the MSM and the blogs online.  From what I’ve divined from that and what I know about the players involved, the process and the politics, here is my prediction.

• Exoneration—10% chance
• Censure—60% chance
• Expulsion—30% chance

I don’t see how the Senate can approve of one of its members sharing a bed with a page.  I think that is clearly a censurable offense.  It does not pass the smell test.  Whether Dan gets tossed depends if the Senators believe Austin Wiese, the other young people, the evidence and whether they think this is sufficient to kick out a member and overturn an election.  That is a big step that I’m betting a majority is not ready to do.

Politics is compromise.  Censure is the compromise position.  Everyone can claim victory.  Put your money on censure today in the S.D. Senate.

If that is all the Senate does, then I think Sutton needs to tell his lawyers, no more appeals or writs.  The sooner this is done and put behind him and everyone else, the better for Dan politically and personally, in my opinion.  But we’ll see.  Dan hasn’t yet done many things in this case that I would have advised.

Stay tuned.