I hate to break it it my friends across the state line in Iowa, but your January 4th caucus—where maybe 7% of the eligible voters participate—does not pick the next President of the United States.

Let’s look at the winners by party and year and who the actual nominees were:

IOWA PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUS RESULTS V. ACTUAL NOMINEES
Year	Iowa Democrat	Actual Democrat	Iowa Republican		Actual Republican
1972	Edmund Muskie*	George McGovern	No caucus
1976	Jimmy Carter*	Jimmy Carter	No caucus
1980	Jimmy Carter**	Jimmy Carter	George H.W. Bush		Ronald Reagan
1984	Walter Mondale	Walter Mondale	Ronald Reagan***		Ronald Reagan
1988	Richard Gephardt	Michael Dukakis	Bob Dole		George H.W. Bush
1992	Tom Harkin	Bill Clinton	George H.W. Bush***		George H.W. Bush
1996	Bill Clinton***	Bill Clinton	Bob Dole		Bob Dole
2000	Al Gore	Al Gore	George W. Bush		George W. Bush
2004	John Kerry	John Kerry	George W. Bush***		George W. Bush
	* Uncommitted was top vote getter
	** Incumbent but opposed in caucus
	*** Incumbent but unopposed in caucus
	Bold indicates winner of Presidential election that year

Source: Des Moines Register

So, in years where there is no incumbent President running—like we have in 2008—the Iowa Caucuses have only selected the correct nominee for both parties once, in 2000—Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush. I suppose you could also throw in 1976 where Jimmy Carter won but there was no Republican caucus.

In years where there was an incumbent President running—every incumbent has won or has been unopposed (Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush)—the Iowa Caucus has only picked the correct nominee twice—in 1984 when it selected Democrat Walter Mondale and in 2004 where it selected Democrat John Kerry.

Or put another way, it picked incorrectly in 1972, 1988, and 1992.  In nine election cycles, it was dead wrong 1/3d of the time—it picked neither nominee.  It picked both nominees^ only 2/9ths of the time in years where there wasn’t an incumbent running—1976 and 2004.

It has picked the wrong nominee for at least one party in 1972, 1980, 1988, and 1992. It picked the right nominee for at least one of the parties in 1976, 1980, 1984, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004.

I’m not telling my Iowa friends not to vote, that you’re vote doesn’t matter.  Quite the contrary.  Perhaps if more people voted, the caucuses would be a better predictor of what might happen in the future.

As The History Channel notes in its excellent history about the Iowa Caucuses:

“Lessons learned: sure it’d be nice to win, but it clearly isn’t necessary to get the nomination. The race is more likely to be decided in New Hampshire, the next step of the presidential selection process. Iowa likes neighbors, so if you come from a nearby state, you’d better do well… . While the caucus doesn’t have a great track record of picking the eventual nominee, it often determines who will not get picked.”

What I’m saying is that it ain’t over—not by a long shot—this Thursday in the Hawkeye State.

Photo: In the December 24 issue of Newsweek: “The Sleeper.” John Edwards — his strategy in Iowa and beyond.(PRNewsFoto/Newsweek)

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