This handy reminder from our South Dakota Secretary of State:

1) Secretary of State: Political Committee Statements of Organization Due(Press Release)
Secretary of State Chris Nelson expressed concern today about the number of political committees in South Dakota who have not filed a new Statement of Organization.
Go to this link.

I was talking to one of my friends who is also a fellow recovering journalist.  We were talking about the Republican state senate leadership election and their choice of moderates in many of the key spots. 

My friend noted, “Why doesn’t anyone in the press seem to understand how important this is, how big a change this is?”

Indeed.

Let’s look at the scorecard after March of this year:

• Draconian abortion bill comfortably defeated.
• Gay marriage constitutional ban barely passes.
• S.D. Democrats make major gains in the state senate.
• Rep. Stephanie Herseth destroys avowed “family values” candidate Bruce Whalen.
• Rob Regier leaves the S.D. Family Policy Council.
• Randy Frederick is stepping down as SD GOP chair.
• Anti-abortion maven Leslee Unruh has been completely discredited.
• Extremist-in-Chief Rep. Roger Hunt, though he won re-election, has a cloud hanging over him on a questionable dummy corporation to filter money for the abortion ban ballot measure.
• The legislative Republicans have replaced activist social conservative leaders with more moderate Chamber of Commerce Republicans.
• The state GOP appears set to bring back Joel Rosenthal as chairman, a pragmatist who is not pro-choice but isn’t a pro-life zealot either.
• The Democrats elected a pro-choice senate leader in Scott Heidepriem.
• Jack Billion, a pro-choice Democrat, will likely be the next chair of the state Democratic Party.

I think this is proof positive that the extremist social conservatives of both parties have been defeated in South Dakota’s decade long Kulturkreig (culture war).   And  if it is not  a complete rout, then they are back on their heels  with far less power  than they had  just a month ago.  They are in full retreat on nearly all fronts.  To put it in the vernacular, they got spanked.

Sure, there are still areas of extreme social conservatism where people think it is their right to impose their world-view and religious beliefs on everyone else.  District 15 in my own party, the Democrats, comes to mine. 

Nonetheless, we have had a sea-change philosophically in South Dakota and I’m not sure we’ve recognized it yet.  While with the Billion campaign, I had a number of wonderful talks with Lt. Gov. Candidate Eric Abrahamson, who could speak eloquently about how the dynamics of politics and political orientation is changing in South Dakota.  The first impact we see is an internal change in the Republican Party.  The secondary impact was on the two parties in general.

I expect that this re-alignment that Dr. Abrahamson (I can call him that now after the election!) has talked about will continue.  The Democrats have an opportunity to take the greatest benefit by positioning themselves as Libertarians on social issues and holding steady on the state budget.  But it is the Republicans who have started already on version 2.0 of their own party, going back to their roots—social moderation, pro-business, less government.

Most people in South Dakota are not on the extremes.  They are moderate, reasonable, reasoning people.  And moderates won the South Dakota Kulturkreig. 

There is a pretty thoughtful discussion going on at the RCJ’s Mt. Blogmore concerning the use of “New Media” in the 2006 S.D. Elections.  My friend and blogmate PP at S.D. War College won the right to name a topic and this was it. 

Rather than rehash it all here, read: PP at SDWC picks a topic: Did “new media” affect elections here?, particularly the comments.

(Hat tip to PP at South Dakota War College.)  The Argus is reporting that Sen. Bill Earley LOST three votes in the Lincoln County recount today.  I am sure that is inccorect.  He gained three votes there and four in Minnehaha County.  Here's their story:  The Argus is reporting it.

Here's the Lincoln County tally sheet:

I just got back from Canton where I was a member of the Lincoln County recount board for the District 12 Senate race between Republican incumbent Bill Earley and Democratic challenger Sandy Jerstad.  Jerstad won the recounts, but her margin slipped from 20 to 13 votes.  Earley picked up 4 votes in the Minnehaha County recount and 3 votes in the Lincoln County recount.

From the challenges by Earley's attorney at the Canton recount, it appears they are going under a theory of disenfranchised voters.  In Lincoln County, at least seven District 12 voters got absentee ballots with the wrong legislative district.  After the ballots were flagged when going through the scanner machine, the election reconciliation board filled out appropriate ballots for that district, leaving the candidates for legislature in the correct district unvoted.  (They would have no way of ascertaining the voter's intent for the right ballot.)

I haven't heard yet what went on in Minnehaha County.  It's been reported that the county auditor there delivered the wrong ballots to one of the precincts and that voters could either wait for the correct ballots or vote on the "wrong" ball, leaving the legislative races blank.  I believe that was 27 ballots.

While 27 ballots and the wrong absentee ballots could be enough to have changed the election, I don't know what the remedy would be.  A special election would also disenfranchise previous voters who can't vote in another election for whatever reason.  Turnout would likely be much smaller.  I doubt that a court would order a new election. 

Also, after literally looking at about 5-6,000 ballots today,  I don't think as a practical matter you can predict how a voter would have voted for State Senate if given the proper chance.  About 10% of all voters did not even vote for either candidate.  Is someone who votes straight ticket likely to vote for the state senate candidate of that party?  What about voters who are all over the map with their choices?  It just simply can't be done after the fact.  It is a mystery that must remain because of the secret ballot.

I can't imagine statistics is much more help.  Would those 27 votes in a half hour or so period break down in accordance with the poll results?  With registration numbers?  By sheer randomness?  A statistician might be able to give probabilities of a breakdown, but no definitive answer on how actual voters would vote.

One other thing I noticed, as noted above, was what I consider is a high percentage of "under votes" or voters choosing not to vote for state senate.  This is not a quantitative analysis but a subjective, qualitative assessment on the precincts I examined today: the majority of "under votes" for state senate were by absentee voters.  Perhaps those of you more experienced in dissecting election results can tell me whether that is unusual or not.  It struck me as troublesome.  Either people didn't know enough to vote on those races or were disinterested.  Sounds like a good M.A. or Ph.D. project of a political science graduate students to pursue.

Anyway, the recount I was in took almost all day and we were careful, thorough, and fair.  It's Jerstad by 13 votes over Earley. 

My seventeen year old daughter Sarah and I were talking about the just past 2006 election a couple days ago.  When we got to the S.D. Governor's race, my daughter noted, "Dad, even the special ed kid in my class said Jack Billion would lose." 

Perhaps we all over-complicate this whole political prognostication thing a bit. 

Sarah's classmate obviously and clearly saw what I stubbornly and stupidly refused to see.  As they say, from the mouths of babes. . .  Perhaps I'll put the young man on retainer in 2008 just to give me a little perspective.

I received my official notice of appointment by Judge Glen Severson today as a member of the Lincoln County recount board in the Sandy Jerstad/Bill Earley District 12 Senate race.  Other members are Tom Wollman, Republican Lincoln County states attorney who is also appointed as referee, and former Republican Lincoln County auditor Helen Nelson. 

Under statute, the Republicans have the majority as the Republican candidate for governor had the most votes in the last (2002) election.

I served on a recount board with Tom and Helen this summer and they were thorough and fair.  Same for the auditor's office.  I don't know why that would change five months later.  I've known Tom as an attorney since 1997 and have no doubts about his honesty. 

Under my appointing oath and oath as an attorney, I have to decide the recount issues fairly and follow the facts and the law.  And that's what I plan to do next Monday.

I don't know who else Presiding Circuit Court Judge Glen Severson has appointed, but Brendan Johnson has been appointed as the Democrat lawyer representative for the Minnehaha County recount board and I have been appointed as the Democrat lawyer representative for the Lincoln County recount board for the Sandy Jerstad/Bill Early state senate race.  The recount boards convene at 9 a.m., Monday, November 27, 2006 at courthouses in Canton and Sioux Falls.

KELOLAND-TV reports that presumably defeated State Senator Bill Earley will ask for a recount.  Read: Earley Calls For Recount In District 12 Race

State Senator-elect Sandy Jerstad actually picked up two votes in the statewide canvas, upping her margin to 20 votes.

I realize some of my fellow Democrats may criticize Earley for requesting a recount.  But I think the race is close enough where it is his legal right.  And based on my previous experience this summer serving on the District 12 GOP House race primary recount board (I was appointed as the token Democrat, per statute, by Second Circuit Presiding Judge Glen Severson), I would expect the results won't change.  The voting system we have is quick and reliable, the Lincoln County auditor's staff was efficient and honest.

But as Judge Severson told me when he appointed me this summer, he said to simply look at the law and the evidence and be fair.   That's good advice--and what the law requires.  Plus, as a lawyer, I try and do whatever a judge tells me to do.  <grin>

I think it was Jefferson who said something to the effect that in a democracy, governments can change because the candidates and the citizens will accept a loss by one vote.  I have no problem that once in a while, the system needs to prove itself faithful and honest to the people's will.  It's what keeps democracy functioning so candidates and governments can continue to change in a peaceful and orderly manner due to just one vote.  If we don't have that belief, we no longer have a democracy, we have chaos--or worse.

I have a lot of criticism of Bill Earley and his politics.  But I will not criticize him if he wants to make sure the vote is correct.   

Coat Hangers at Dawn (BTW, my new favorite local blog) notes that Rep. Roger Hunt and whomever is behind the video lottery campaign money are now officially under investigation.  Read: Hunt Officially Under State Investigation

November is proving to be a newsworthy month with the election results, the Dan Sutton special session, and now, this.  Christmas has come early for the SoDakBlogOSphere! 

Aberdeen's David Newquist says the youth of today are a troubled, bigoted, divided, intolerant bunch.  Read: Bad day at Sixth Avenue and Dakota Street

I can imagine The Newk hiking his pants up to his nipples, putting on a pork pie hat, wearing a powder blue polyester short-sleeved jumpsuit, and screaming out his front door, "You kids get of the yard!"

An excerpt:

Over the years when I have asked freshmen students to write analytical papers about their educational experiences, they all acknowledge the divisions of students into the popular kids, the preppies, the gangstas, the motor heads, the druggies, the gothics, the jocks, and on and on. The papers all reflected a bitter disdain held by the factions toward each other. They were remarkable in that only an isolated few reflected any inclination toward tolerance, good will, and the acceptance of differences.

Sounds like Yankton High School circa 1976 to me.  Druggies, jocks, preps, sluts, gear heads, and nerds.  Or go watch Ferris Bueller's Day Off (1986).  High school is high school.  Most of us get through it and grow up into decent humans.

The Newkster talks about bad behavior by the kids on both sides of the abortion divide election day, essentially yelling at cars and each other.  It's all sound and fury, signifying nothing.  And I have no doubt Dr. Dave has accurately reported the scene election day in Aberdeen.  It was probably not pretty.

But I had a far different experience with the youth of South Dakota while working against Amendment C.  

We had straight and gay high school and college students (and youth that age who were working) as volunteers.  To a person, they were hard working, thoughtful, and respectful.  Many of our volunteers handing out palm cards to voters as they went to the voting booth were under 21.  I observed several polling places and our youthful volunteers were friendly and respectful.  If someone didn't want literature, they respected that.  If someone yelled at them about being against Amendment C, they said thank you and have a nice day.  Some of our college age volunteers even rescued a lady's cat who had run out of her house when they were canvassing--after she had told them in no uncertain terms she was voting for Amendment C.

Prior to election day, our youthful volunteers worked hard.  They took direction from me and other SDAD staff.  They took part in our planning sessions and offered excellent ideas for GOTV.  We did not have a single youthful (or otherwise) volunteer flake on us election day.

In talking to many of these youth, they said they didn't think their parents took the time to get to know them or to realize that they were good kids, not punks.  That is a failing of us older folks, not our children and our young citizens.

Unllike Dr. Newquist, I came away with quite a different view of South Dakota's young people--they are caring, hardworking, thoughtful, and reliable.  Are there some bad apples in the bunch?  Sure.  But no different than any group of South Dakotans.  If anything, I am more hopeful about the future of our state based on what I saw from the young people who I worked with this election. 

Dr. Newquist, I guess I'm just a damn sunny optimist.

I've gotten some rest, read about a million blog postings, talked with winning and losing campaigns.  It's time now to hand out som post-2006 election hardware, better known as "The Toddies."

• Biggest Miscalculation of the Will of the People: Winner--Rep. Roger Hunt and 2/3 of South Dakota Legislature on H.B. 1215, the abortion ban.  Runner-Up--The folks behind Amendment E--Uh, what were you thinking?
• Worst Campaign by a Major Candidate: Bruce Whalen for U.S. House.  Slandering a popular incumbent than failing to apologize is a bad way to win an election.
• Worst Campaign by a Down Ballot Candidate: State Senator Dick Kelly.  Slandering a popular opponent then saying you're sick is a bad way to win an election.
• Best Campaign by a Major Candidate: Winner--Gov. Mike Rounds.  Yes, I hate to say it, but Mike masterfully countered Jack Billion's parries at him and his record.  He ran like Ronald Reagan--a sunny, positive presence.  It's hard not to like Mike.  Runners-Up--Jarrod Johnson for School and Public Lands.  At first I thought the cowboy hat and green shirt was over the top.  But they became easily identifiable trademarks.  He also had excellent signage and placement.  Steve Kolbeck for PUC.  Excellent TV ad that made the most of his media.  Plus, he worked his tail off.
• Best Campaign by a Down Ballot Candidate: Winner--Scott Heidepriem for state senate.  Excellent mailings and billboards and when attacked by Dick Kelly, he immediately responded.  Runner-up--Marc Feinstein for state representative.  While Sandy Jerstad also ran an outstanding campaign for state senate, Marc had far fewer resources.  He knocked on every door in his district.  The use of the old "Feinsteins" logo from his family's stores was also a nice touch.
• Best Winning Ballot Issue Campaign: Winner--S.D. Campaign for Healthy Families.  Grassroots organizing at its best.  Very old school.  It also helped Democrats in the legislative races.  Runner-up: No on E.  Great TV ads.  Dianna Miller was also a tremendous spokeswoman.
• Best Losing Ballot Issue Campaign: South Dakotans Against Discrimination.  As campaign manager Jon Hoadley likes to kid, we had four dollars and a Tic-Tac to work with.  Innovative radio ads, marvelous print ads featuring Helen "Quasi What" Frank, a brilliant campaign manager in Hoadley, precinct palm card handouts, and the most dedicated volunteers I've ever seen in a campaign.  We'll be back!
• Best Election Blog: Winner--S.D. War College.  Pat Powers crunches the numbers on campaign finance, analyzes the ads, and has tremendous sources.  SDWC was and is the "must read" if you care about S.D. Politics.  Runner-up--The Rapid City Journal's Mount Blogmore.  Bill Harlan and Kevin Woster are two of the best--and most soulful--reporters in South Dakota.  They also have a sense of humor.  The comment sections are a "must read."
• Best Election Day/Night Blogging: Winner--South Dakota Watch (yeah, me).  Timely, funny, short, analytical.  Runner-up: The Argus Leader's Voices Blog.  The folks at the Argus finally got this whole blogging thing and showed that when they put their minds to it, they can be good at it.
• Stupidest Editorial Endorsement: Winner--The Argus Leader's Endorsement to Vote Yes on Amendment C.  We at SDAD were scratching our heads about their reasoning, as was, I'm sure, our opponents, Bob Ellis and Rob Regier.  The Argus had reasons to vote for the measure that no one had ever talked about.  Runner-up: The Aberdeen American News' Endorsement to Vote Yes on Amendment C.  We have heard that the editorial board at the AAN actually wanted to oppose Amendment C but that they got big-footed by their corporate owners. 
• Best Editorial Endorsement: Yankton Press and Dakotan's Endorsement to Vote No on Amendment C.  A well reasoned, lengthy, and brave editorial opposing bigotry.
• Best TV Coverage of the Ballot Issues: Tie--KSFY-TV and KELO-TV.  Their "This Week" and "Inside Keloland" Saturday/Sunday shows did an excellent job covering nearly all the issues.  I heard many people say they were tuning in to one or both to help them decide. 

There are probably many other awards that I can hand out--and I might.  But it's a good start.  Add your own in the comments.

From Todd's email bag, a report from Kansas from one of my good friends:

• Update from bandaged Kansas: As predicted, Phil Kline, our highly deficient incumbent Attorney General got beat by the Democrat, but by more than I ever imagined: 58% to 42%. Moderates have taken control of the Kansas School Board (amen!). Democrats retained the Governor’s mansion and Lt. Governor post. 

  Things are looking up.