I've never seen anything like it. 

Before the polls opened at my precinct's polling place in Harrisburg, SD at the United Methodist Church, the large parking lot was full, there were cars parked on the street, and there was a long line stretching out the door.

I'm not sure what it means other than the potential for a very large turnout.  Harrisburg is overwhelming Republican.  Are these motivated Republican voters or have they tired from eight years of Bush and will vote Democrat?  Did the well oiled Republican machine get folks out?  Was it the best GOTV effort that state Democrats have ever run for local candidates?

I don't have a clue.  I think it bodes well for Democrats and Barack Obama, but that's why they play the game.

Regardless, it's a good day for our democracy.

Now, do your part and go vote!

I just had my point and shoot with me this evening at the Sioux Falls Labor Temple for the State Democratic Party Pre-Election Rally. 

It featured Senators Tim Johnson and George McGovern, Representatives Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Max Sandlin, State Senator Scott Heidepriem, and PUC Commission candidate Matt McLarty.

It was a packed house!

Esquire, my favorite all-time magazine, has endorsed Senator Tim Johnson and Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin for re-election this fall.

Esquire notes:

Johnson: “Despite the obvious political incentives to do so in this deeply red state, Johnson has never betrayed his center-left principles but has, to his great credit, forged working relationships with its conservative leaders.”

Herseth Sandlin: “The primary difference between Herseth Sandlin and her state’s Republicans comes on the issue of abortion: Herseth Sandlin thinks it should be legal;”

Esky also endorses Sen. Barack Obama for President.  I would think on sartorial style alone he would get the Esquire nod.

(Hat tip to A Progressive on the Prairie!)

A month from today is the general election.

What will happen?

Here are some thoughts:

• Barack Obama loses South Dakota (as Democrats usually do) but wins the Presidency.
• Sen. Tim Johnson receives at least 62% of the vote.  This race is boring.  Debate, blah, blah, blah.
  
• Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin receives at least 65% of the vote.  This race is also boring.  Has anyone found the other half of Chris Lien’s missing head?
• Democratic PUC challenger Matt McLarty pulls off an upset and defeats incumbent Republican PUC Commissioner Gary Hanson in a squeaker.
• Democrats come within a seat or two of taking the State Senate.  Democrats pick up four seats in the State House.
• IM 9 on stock certificates and short selling passes.  Then again, it is a good idea so it could be defeated.
  
• IM 10, the “clean and sober government act,” does slightly better than Amendment E in 2006, “only” losing 80-20.  Would the out of staters involved in this please leave us alone for an election?  What’s next? Selecting legislators randomly from the phone book?  (Wait, that might be an improvement.)
  
• IM 11, the latest abortion ban, is again narrowly defeated 51-49.  Leslie Unruh, please, enough already.  This has been the stealth campaign by both sides.
  
• Constitutional Amendments—South Dakotans vote no if they don’t know.  I’m not sure anyone knows.

Anyway, go vote—early or on election day.  If you’re not registered to vote, get that way.

Democrats participated in South Dakota State University's Homecoming Parade in Brookings on Saturday, October 4, 2008.

Supporters came out for Presidential candidate Barack Obama, Senator Tim Johnson, Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and State Senate candidate Pam Merchant. In addition to dozens of supporters on foot, a decorated truck covered with banners representing each of the candidates was driven through the parade.

(Photo and story courtesy of Lois Hatton.)

This just in from the Associated Press*

U.S. Senate 234 of 762 precincts - 31 percent Tim Johnson, Dem (i) 51,312 - 57 percent Joel Dykstra, GOP 39,410 - 43 percent U.S. House District 1 234 of 762 precincts - 31 percent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Dem (i) 50,440 - 56 percent Chris Lien, GOP 40,282 - 44 percent Public Utilities Comm NV 234 of 762 precincts - 31 percent Gary Hanson, GOP (i) 40,799 - 45 percent Matt McLarty, Dem 35,191 - 39 percent Eugene Hidalgo, CST 14,732

*It is only a test!  But a fun one, huh?

Technorati Tags: polling, Tim Johnson, Joel Dykstra, US Senate, South Dakota

*Not.

The Badlands Blue stalkerazzi caught up with GOP US Senate candidate in Onida, SD and his reception was, um, er, not exactly overwhelming.


Technorati Tags: Joel Dkystra, Tim Johnson, US Senate, South Dakota, Onida, 2008 electio

CQPolitics is doing a roundup of all 50 states going into the election.

They pick McCain over Obama for President in our state. But they like the Democrats who are next on the ballot.

An excerpt:

South Dakota is far from entirely unfriendly to Democrats. The state’s senior senator, Tim Johnson , who was once viewed as a prime GOP target, had a life-threatening brain hemorrhage in December 2006 but has recovered significantly and is now an overwhelming favorite for a third term this fall. The state’s sole House member, Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin , also has an easy re-election race.

Nice. "Overwhelming favorite" and "easy re-election." Write Tim and Stephanie in in ink for another term each.

Technorati Tags: CQPolitics, Tim Johnson, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, US House, US Senate, 2008 election, South Dakota

Since this appears to be the only thing even remotely approaching polling on the issue, South Dakotans apparently don't care if Sen. Tim Johnson debates or not.

It's over 3 to 1 that respondents say the Senator's decision not to debate Rep. Joel Dykstra will have no impact on their vote this fall.

That's kind of where I thought the results would fall. And by the time October rolls around, it will really be a non-issue.

I still think Tim should debate at least once. But it looks like there's no public backlash by his decision not to. Until someone does something more scientific than SD Watch in terms of polling, I think the results bear out what I've been hearing from people.


Technorati Tags: Tim Johnson, Joel Dykstra, 2008 election, polls, debates, US Senate

Technorati Tags: Tim Johnson, Joel Dykstra, 2008 election, US Senate, polls, debates

Read this poll carefully. Will Sen. Tim Johnson's decision not to debate Rep. Joel Dykstra have any impact on how you will vote for U.S. Senate this November.

I'm not asking if you approve or disapprove or if you think it is a good or bad strategy. Will the decision make any difference in how you vote?

Vote early, vote often (or as often as the poll will let you)!

Technorati Tags: online polls, Tim Johnson, Joel Dykstra, US Senate, 2008 election, debates

Ok, I’ve thought about it.

Sen. Tim Johnson’s decision not to debate state Rep. Joel Dykstra is brilliant political strategy.

The Senator has difficulty speaking. He has to speak slowly. Neither of these issues contribute to debating success.

Even more brilliant, however, is campaign manager Steve Jarding’s timing in releasing this.

On a Friday, when you take out the trash to the media, and just under three months from the election.

The story will die down this weekend, particularly on TV, where TV news tations run basically skeleton crews. By Monday, the story is four days old. By the end of next week, the story will be gone—the “legs” will have fallen off.

So, my Republican friends, whine while you can. Your window is closing.

And this puts Rep. Dykstra in a terrible box. He too can complain about not having an opponent to debate—for a while. But he can’t keep yipping about this in September and October and November. What’s done is done. Johnson ain’t debating. He’ll have to talk about other, more substantive things, like what he’d do as Senator. And Dykstra doesn’t have the money to do that now and likely won’t anytime soon.

So, from a political strategy point of view, Johnson’s decision not debate and its timing are brilliant.

Brilliant, but bad for our democracy.

Next to perhaps maybe SDPTV’s Stephanie Rissler, I’ve probably produced more political debates for TV han anyone else in South Dakota. During my time at SDPTV (and before that at KTWU-TV in Topeka, KS), I took the view that political debates were one of the most important things broadcasters—particularly public broadcasting stations—do. While sometimes contrived and stuffy and limiting, debates allow citizens to see the candidates discuss a broad range of issues, face one another, and give citizens the chance to compare and contrast in a “one stop shopping” setting.

Political debates are good for our democracy.

Further, I am not aware of any candidate for major office in SD since 1986 refusing to participate in at least one debate. Rep. Tom Daschle debated Sen. Jim Abnor in 1986. Sen. Larry Pressler debated Ted Muenster and a couple of other third party candidatess in 1990. Rep. Tim Johnson debated Sen. Pressler in 1996. Rep. John Thune debated Sen. Johnson in 2002. Thune debated Sen. Tom Daschle in 2004. I also think every single gubernatorial candidate during that time debated.

South Dakotans expect their candidates—even popular incumbents—to debate. It is very much a part of our political history and fabric.

Unless there’s a miracle—and they do happen once in a while in politics—Sen. Johnson will be re-elected to a third term to the US Senate in November.

The political operative in me completely understands why Sen. Johnson doesn’t want to debate. But the citizen and idealist in me thinks its bad for our South Dakota democracy to not see the candidates for U.S. Senate on a stage at least once, so we, the people of South Dakota, can measure the mettle of the men who wish to represent us.

Technorati Tags: debates, South Dakota, US Senate, Joel Dykstra, Tim Johnson

My good friend Pat Powers must have awoken today as a seven year old would on Christmas morning upon the news of Sen. Tim Johnson not debating.

Here are his posts on the issue so far today:

• As dems try to spin it, let’s remind them what another Senator says
• The spin cycle has started. Badland Blue has a prepared list of excuses.
• First SDSU’s pundit weighed in.
  
• Now, USD’s has an even harsher view.
• Even Democratic leaning commentators think this could backfire on Tim Johnson
• One good thing to come out of Johnson conceding debates..
• Dem Blog silent, except for Johnson statement. Not even the Dems can spin that one.
• SDWC KELOland post: Johnson refuses all debates in an unprecedented move 
• Republican Tide on Johnson’s inability to interview for the Job of US Senator Johnson statement on why he can’t debate, but is up to the job. Really. 
• BREAKING NEWS! Johnson to decline ALL debates!

I can’t imagine what Pat would do if Dykstra actually won. (Leading scientists predict the odds of that happening about the same as finding life on Pluto.)

Pat. Breathe. Again. Breathe.

We’ll have to see if all these toys you’ve opened are still working on Election Day or have broken and been tossed in the trash.

Pat, I’ve provided a paper bag up top for you to breathe into so you don’t pass out from hyperventilating.

Technorati Tags: Tim Johnson, South Dakota War College, Joel Dykstra, breathe, hyperventilating, 2008 election, US Senate

Sen. Tim Johnson announced today that he won't debate challenger Joel Dykstra in the US Senate race.

I'm not sure what I think yet.

Here's something unprecedented for a blogger. I'm going to think about it for a day or so before rendering an opinion.

I can see both the positives and negatives of this approach.

So just stay tuned while I cogitate on this a bit. In the meantime, feel free to offer your own thoughts in the comments.

Technorati Tags: Tim Johnson, Joel Dykstra, debates, South Dakota, US Senate, 2008 election