Remember earlier this week when conservative syndicated columnist Robert Novak wrote it was a done deal, that Ellsworth Air Force Base was going to be shuttered and Sen. John Thune was whacked by the President?

Heck, even I mentioned his column.

Bob, you were kind of wrong.

I mean really wrong.  And fortunately, he was wrong.  But you got to wonder what his sourcing was on his story.  I know columnists have a lot more leeway than journalists, but wow, his column was just plain off base.

I don't mean to pile on Mr. Novak, as you don't report for nearly 40 years in D.C. and achieve his degree of success without knowing something and being right (not just Right) a good share of the time.  I'm not a fan of his but I do acknowledge his skill, connections, and tenacity.

Still, I find it kind of interesting, something that makes you go "hmmm," boyfriends and girlfriends.

Yes, I'm still on hiatus, but you'd never know it.

Before 8:20 a.m. today, if Ellsworth stays on list, Thune in big trouble, Herseth probably runs against him in 2010.

After 8:20 a.m. today, EAFB off list, Thune looks like a statesman, 2010 Democratic opponent has an uphill battle.

The Commission voted to remove EAFB on a 8-1 vote. Congratulations to our Congressional Delegation, Gov. Rounds, the Rapid City Chamber, et al. Rounds, Herseth, Johnson, and Thune were all sitting together when the announcement was made. Was the President's ear finally found? I'm sure the folks in the Hills are breathing a big sigh of relief.

KELOLAND reports that the military does get a couple of weeks to put together a rebuttal, but it looks doubtful the BRACers will change their minds.

The BRAC Commission is currently discussing Ellsworth Air Force Base. Go to C-SPAN2, which is also being simulcast on KDLT, KSFY, and KELO, to watch.

I don't think this is good news for Ellsworth Air Force Base's chances of getting off the BRAC list: the BRACers are keeping storied Walter Reed Army Hospital on the closure list.

The breaking story, from the Washington Post:

Walter Reed Medical Center to Be Closed
A federal commission signed off Thursday on the Pentagon's plan to close the crown jewel of the Army hospital system and relocate its workers as part of an effort to streamline medical services across the armed forces.

If the BRACers are crazy enough and bold enough to close one of the icons of the American military, where does that leave EAFB?  Not good, in my opinion.

Hopefully, the BRAC commissioners will look at the many problems that Dyess AFB has and change their minds about EAFB. So much for the President's ear.  Logic and facts, let's hope, will win the day for Ellsworth.

Without comment from conservative columnist Robert Novak today:

The Base Realignment and Closure Commission will have finished its work by week's end, and Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota probably will be closed forever. That also will close Sen. John Thune's tenure as national Republican poster boy following his victory last year over Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle. This is a cautionary tale of what happens when politicians forget politics.

And no schadenfreude on my behalf.  I hope our Congressional Delegation--Sen. John Thune included--can get Ellsworth off the list.

Always looking for ways to take this blog in new directions, I have a first: One of my D.C. Democrat sources with S.D. ties takes issue with one of my S.D. GOP sources.

The issue? Sen. Tim Johnson's effectiveness on EAFB.

Here's the original post by my GOP source.

And below, here's the response from my D.C. Dem source.

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Your post about Tim and what your SD GOP friend was interesting--but a bit incomplete, I think.

Everybody had their role in this process.

Tom: No rational person dispute s that Tom was able to get Bill Clinton to take Ellsworth off the list last time. This obviously is the key Thune comparison. Tom didn't have to tell people he had Bill Clinton's "ear." He just got it done. John talked about his having GWB's ear. He missed the putt. And, Tom had an appointment to the BRAC Commission. Not something that Tim or Thune could do.

John : His leverage was with Bush and making sure Ellsworth wasn't on the list when it came from the Pentagon, like Tom did with Clinton. Before he opened his mouth in the campaign, Thune should have had a commitment from Rove that GWB would take care of him. Obviously, the "young man in a hurry" was only concerned about getting elected or figured he didn't need to worry about the future . He found out pretty quickly how t he future can reach up and bit e him in the behind. And obviously, Tom's BRAC appointment went to Harry Reid.

Tim: Sits on the Appropriations Committee with infrastructure improvements to Ellsworth. Tim dealt with the part of the equation he had control over. Funding for Ellsworth infrastructure improvements. From the news stories following the BRAC hearing , it doesn't appear to be any dispute that the last few years has seen significant improvements to Ellsworth's infrastructure.

While it's possible that the Ellsworth could be taken off the list by BRAC, it's pretty clear that it's hard to get that done at this point. As has been pointed out many times in the press, there are a lot of GOP politicos who are in tough 2006 re-election races and who need their bases. I'm sure the WH figures that John has 5 years to clean up his SD mess so they will take care of the others, if anybody gets taken care of.

With that being the case, what long shot does your GOP friend think that Tim should be taking that he isn't?

The following is from my good GOP friend from here in SD (see below) who is in the know about these sorts of things. They have an interesting perspective about the BRAC process and the politics and thinking behind Sen. John Thune and Sen. Tim Johnson words and actions.

I don't agree with every thing my friend says but I thought it was an interesting take on the whole BRAC ordeal and the politics involved. And of course, we at S.D. Watch are nothing if not looking to enlighten our readers. (And to use the terms "we" and "our" to refer to the one person who runs the joint.)

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For what it’s worth...It occurs to me....what does Tim Johnson have to lose....It’s already being pinned on Thune and his relationship to W (which was a numbnut thing to claim last year by the way)....so since the percentage is not high for Ellsworth to come off the BRAC list...as long as Timmy keeps his powder dry, he’s good.   

Which says a lot about his leadership style....and if he really wanted to emerge from behind Tommy’s shadow.  

Maybe it is smart on his part....it makes me think of a sports analogy from Tin Cup.  The golfers can play a hole safe and short or they can take a big risk and hit for the green and risk going in the water — but save a stroke if they make it.  

Of course initially we see our hero take a risk and lose....when faced with the same decision again....he plays it risky again...but this time it pays off.  I’m not sure that Senator Tim has ever taken hit a long shot....and so far he’s played it safe and it’s worked...why change.  

Of course to quote Tom Daschle....a Senate seat is a terrible thing to waste.

BRAC has an excellent website full of information. Here's their thumbnail on Ellsworth and the Joe Foss Field ANG unit:

South Dakota

Ellsworth Air Force Base -- Close

Manpower: The installation will lose 3,315 military and 438 civilians and gain no military and no civilians for a total loss of 3,315 military and 438 civilians.

-- Air Force Recommendations:

Move all assigned B-1s to Dyess AFB, Texas.

-- Joint Recommendations: NONE.

Incoming Activities

-- Air Force Actions: NONE.

-- Joint Actions: NONE.

Departing Activities:

-- Air Force Actions:

What: Ellsworth AFB moves all assigned B-1s to Dyess AFB, Texas.

Why: This action consolidates the B-1 fleet.

Joint Actions: NONE.


Back to Listings

Joe Foss Field Air Guard Station -- Gain

Manpower: The installation will lose 4 military and no civilians and gain 32 military and 27 civilians for a total gain of 28 military and 27 civilians.

-- Air Force Recommendations:

Receive three F-16 aircraft from Cannon AFB, N.M. Move base-level F-110 intermediate maintenance to Capital Airport AGS, IL to establish a Centralized Intermediate Repair Facility (CIRF) at Capital for F110 engines.

-- Joint Recommendations: NONE.

Incoming Activities:

-- Air Force Actions:

What: Receive three F-16 aircraft from Cannon AFB.

Why: This action is part of a larger effort to consolidate the F-16 fleet.

-- Joint Actions: NONE.

Departing Activities:

-- Air Force Actions:

What: Move base-level F-110 intermediate maintenance to Capital Airport AGS, Ill., to establish a Centralized Intermediate Repair Facility (CIRF) at Capital for F110 engines.

Why: Establishing a CIRF at Capital for F110 engine maintenance compliments the realignment of the F-16 fleet. The CIRF at Capital compliments force structure realignment

-- Joint Actions: NONE.

The following is from Sen. Tim Johnson's office regarding his remarks to the BRAC Commissioners earlier today in Rapid City.

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Johnson Points to Strengths of Ellsworth at BRAC Field Hearing

Rapid City, SD —U.S. Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) participated in the Base Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC) hearing in Rapid City today where he highlighted the condition of the Ellsworth Air Force Base and the infrastructure improvements made to the base over the last ten years.

“Clearly, the B-1 bomber has proven it is the backbone of our bomber fleet. To ensure that its mission was not compromised and to maintain operational efficiencies and readiness, the South Dakota Congressional delegation secured funding necessary for substantial upgrades to the base’s infrastructure. As a result, Ellsworth is a top-notch, modern facility without equal among military installations,” Johnson said in his remarks.

In the past 3 years, Senator Johnson has used his position on the Military Construction Appropriations subcommittee to help direct more than $75 million to Ellsworth, including funding for a new base operations building, B-1 training facility, and military housing. Since the last round of base closures, Ellsworth has received nearly $140 million in military construction projects in preparation for this BRAC round.

In addition to upgrading facilities at Ellsworth, Johnson has worked to ensure that the B-1 Bomber remains an integral component in our national defense.

In 2003, Johnson cosponsored legislation with Senator Tom Daschle that required the Air Force to begin reinstating at least seven B-1 aircraft previously scheduled for retirement. Last year, Johnson helped secure an additional $22.5 million to modernize the B-1 fleet. This was a 33 percent increase over the President’s budget request of just $68 million. The funding will be used to upgrade battlefield communications and provide enhanced radar for tracking ground targets.

“The B-1s that call Ellsworth home are integral to our nation’s defense, and Ellsworth is uniquely qualified to maintain the B-1 mission. Closing Ellsworth and stationing all our bombers at one installation without carefully considering the long term consequences will impair our ability to protect against threats at home and abroad,” Johnson concluded.

**Prepared Statement Follows**

###

For more information on Senator Tim Johnson visit his website at http://johnson.senate.gov . To contact Senator Johnson’s communications office via e-mail, write his Communications Director at Julianne_Fisher@Johnson.Senate.gov or his Deputy Communications Director at Noah_Pinegar@Johnson.Senate.gov

U.S. Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD)

Statement to the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Commission Field Hearing

Tuesday, June 21, 2005

I would like to welcome Commissioner Skinner, Commissioner Bilbray, and Commissioner Coyle to South Dakota and to thank them for their service to the Base Realignment and Closure Commission. I know each of you will give careful and thoughtful consideration to the arguments presented today in defense of Ellsworth Air Force Base.

I would also like to recognize the Ellsworth Task Force, the Rapid City and Box Elder communities, and the men and women stationed at Ellsworth. Your steadfast dedication, patriotism, and support for Ellsworth has strengthened America.

This morning, I had the opportunity to join the Commissioners in touring Ellsworth Air Force Base and we saw first hand that it is an unparalleled and world-class military installation that is uniquely qualified to beddown the B-1 bomber fleet. Ellsworth is physically not the same air force base that it was a decade ago. In an age of ever-changing and emerging threats, it was imperative to upgrade the facilities at Ellsworth in order to confront the new enemies of the 21^st century. Without question, we have succeeded.

The challenge to transform Ellsworth was necessary given our military’s growing reliance on the B-1 bomber in defending our country. The B-1 bomber was first used in combat during Operation Desert Fox in December 1998. In recent years, B-1 bombers and their crews proved their combat value in Kosovo , Afghanistan , and Iraq . In fact, in Operation Iraqi Freedom, B-1s flew fewer than 2% of the combat sorties, but dropped more than half the satellite guided munitions. They showed great flexibility and were assigned a broad range of targets in Iraq, including command and control facilities, bunkers, tanks, armored personnel carriers, and surface-to-air missile sites. They also demonstrated the ability to linger for many hours over the battlefield and to provide close air support for U.S. forces engaged in the field.

Clearly, the B-1 bomber has proven it is the backbone of our bomber fleet. To ensure that its mission was not compromised, and to maintain operational efficiencies and readiness, the South Dakota Congressional delegation secured funding necessary for substantial upgrades to the base’s infrastructure. As a result, E llsworth is a top-notch, modern facility without equal among military installations.

In the past decade, we have secured nearly $140 million dollars that has been invested in Ellsworth’s infrastructure. This includes funding for a new flight-simulator facility for B-1 crews to replace the outdated facility, allowing aviators access to improved training methods. A new operations center for the 37^th Bomb Squadron was built to consolidate operations that had previously been housed in three separate locations. Erected in close proximity to the new headquarters of the 77th Bomb Squadron and to the flight line, it has enhanced mission responsiveness and productivity.

While servicemembers must have access to the most advanced training systems available, it is equally important to provide a good quality of life to the men and women who serve Ellsworth. The dilapidated family housing units have been replaced with military housing that ranks amongst the best in the country. In addition, a new library and education center have been built, while the McRaven Child Development Center has been remodeled and expanded. These improvements have made Ellsworth one of the most family friendly and desirable bases for military personnel and their loved ones.

Finally, Ellsworth is strategically located with good access to training ranges and potential for growth. Ellsworth has strong community support and does not face the urban encroachment issues that confront many other military installations. Rather than closing, Ellsworth has without a doubt demonstrated it is our nation’s premier bomber base, and is well positioned to receive additional missions.

The entire state of South Dakota is proud of Ellsworth and the men and women stationed there for their role in keeping America safe. The B-1s that call Ellsworth home are integral to our nation’s defense, and Ellsworth is uniquely qualified to maintain the B-1 mission. Closing Ellsworth and stationing all our bombers at one installation without carefully considering the long term consequences will impair our ability to protect against threats at home and abroad.

Thank you.

Luckily, I was able to catch most of S.D. Public Broadcasting Radio's pre-hearing and hearing coverage of the Rapid City BRAC Commission Hearing. A few thoughts:

• SDPB's Charles Michael Ray, an excellent reporter on produced packages, was interviewing Chris Lien from the Rapid City Chamber of Commerce prior to the hearing.  At the end of many of Lien's comments he would go, "Right on, right on," or "Wow, wow."  For a moment I thought I was listening to the alt-jazz/world music host on one of the Lefty Pacifica's radio stations.  Didn't figure I'd hear "Right on" in 2005, let alone by a broadcast professional.
• If I ever produce another documentary, I am going to have Rapid City Mayor Jim Shaw, a former broadcaster, do the narration.  That dude has a set of major brass ball baritone pipes!
• Sen. John Thune sounded extremely angry during his presentation.  I guess I'd be ticked too if I lost the President's ear.  The funniest moment for me was when he said Dyess AFB could be terrorized by godless tornados, all the while showing a photo of a Al Qaeda-loving tornado that struck close to McConnell AFB near Wichita, KS. 
• Dr. Sid Goss from SDSM&T gave so many statistics about the economic impact of Ellsworth that I think the square root of the $278 million impact of the base now equals the number of B-1B bombers based at EAFB.  Or was it the cosine of the number of Ponderosa pines in the Black Hills equals the number of civilian jobs at EAFB?  I forget.
• The person who did the best job was the guy who went just before Mayor Mike Rounds.  This dude gave the Commission what I think they wanted or needed to hear--how the BRAC process deviated from BRAC and Air Force guidelines.  That I thought was pretty convincing.
• SDPB Radio interviewed some ranting lady who is the wife of a military retiree who kept yelling about being the "Forgotten Factor."  Her reason for keeping the base open?  She gets cheap prescription drugs at the PX.  Thankfully, the BRAC Commissioners didn't get to hear from her; she was merely inflicted on us public radio listeners.
• Overall, I thought SDPB Radio's coverage was quite good.  My only other criticism was that some of the interviews went a little long, but I appreciated the effort and the good work by Gary Ellenbolt, Chuck Beck, and Charles Michael Ray.  SDPB does an excellent job covering these big events and their effort today was no exception.

Unlike the big announcement back in May, I won't be live blogging the Rapid City BRAC hearing and the resulting news coverage.

I have two main reasons:

First, I have a busy day being a lawyer today.  I'm in Salem, SD for a county zoning meeting this afternoon.

Second, I don't think the hearing will be anything more than a futile attempt at changing the BRAC commissioners' minds.  I don't see how a pep rally atmosphere is going to change their analysis, particularly in light of President George Bush's comments about the need to modernize the military and save money.

Again, I hope Ellsworth does not close.  But if that is going to happen, it is going to take place behind closed doors with the major players hasing it out and not on the basketball court at the Rapid City Civic Center.

Sen. Tim Johnson's statement regarding BRAC, with audio. Click link at right: Johnson BRAC Hearing 6-21-05.mp3

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Johnson Statement Regarding BRAC Hearing in Rapid City

Rapid City, SD—U.S. Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) released the following statement regarding the case he will make at today’s Base Realignment and Closure Commission Hearing in Rapid City, regarding Ellsworth Air Force Base.

“We have a modern, up-to-date air base at Ellsworth Air Force Base.  Since 1995, the last BRAC round, we’ve helped put $140 million of infrastructure upgrade into that base.  It is a high-tech, very modern base; a huge mistake for the Department of Defense to walk away from that kind of investment.”

Audio is attached, and runs 0:16.  Release and prepared remarks to follow shortly.

###

For more information, visit Senator Johnson’s website at http://johnson.senate.gov

To contact Senator Johnson’s communications office e-mail his Communications Director at Julianne_Fisher@johnson.senate.gov or Deputy Communications Director at Noah_Pinegar@johnson.senate.gov

I break with tradition and address a fellow blogger on the Right. (I don't typically do this as the eye on the prizes are Thune, Munson, Bush and the GOP, as bloggers don't typically run for office and set public policy, unless they work for Sen. Thune.)

Anyway, Sibby today screams that today's "LA Times Spreads Hildebrand's Lie" and is a "hit piece."  Now, Steve H. is a pretty influential fellow.  He's even--aghast--a Democrat! (Wet raspberry!) who worked for Sen. Tom Daschle! (Boo, hiss!). 

But as influential as Steve is, I doubt he has the power to control the Los Angeles Times and force them to: A. Do a "negative" story on Thune (IMHO, the story is honest, not negative); B. Interview Steve; and C. Quote Steve.

Now, I don't rightly know if the L.A. Times is a "far left" newspaper as Mr. Sibson posits.  It's not a paper I read regularly.  However, it has a policy of NOT endorsing Presidential candidates. 

According the Editor and Publisher, Times Editorial Page Editor Michael Kinsley (yes, a liberal) had thoughts about changing the policy in 2004.  However, when push came to shove, according to L.A. Observed. the L.A. Times did not endorse any candidate for President, despite Kinsley's desire to do so.

The L.A. Times, for whatever reasons, was one of the few major California papers to stay neutral in 2004 and one of a very few major U.S. papers to also do so.

Thus, I'm not sure the "far left" moniker is fitting for the Times.  Maybe, maybe not.

In the L.A. Times story, even Rapid City Mayor Jim Shaw said the community should have seen the closing coming.   I have no idea if Mayor Shaw is a Democrat or Republican but it strikes me as a candid statement from a political leader.

Anyway, I just thought the record needed a little clarity on these points.  But to call the story a "hit piece" and to ascribe such powers to Hildy is simply hyperbole.

Jer Bear at Don'tworryaboutthegovernment stole my thunder with his excellent post about the well written but pessimistic L.A. Times story about Ellsworth's possible closing. 

An interesting theme is how the people the Times interviewed aren't too awfully happy with "Earless" John Thune right now. 

Both Jer Bear's story and the Times articles are must reads.

The links: 

http://dontworryaboutthegovernment.blogspot.com/2005/06/dont-worry-box-elder-when-john-votes.html (Jer Ber's story)

 “Prairie Towns Brace for Base Closing's Blow.”  (Today's L.A. Times story, (subscription)).